What is Guess The Citations?

A free web game where you guess which research papers received more citations per year. The game explores why citation counts are a very limited measure of scientific impact.

How to Play

You will see the titles of two research papers. Guess which one has more citations per year. You have the option to see the abstract too. Time is limited, so trust your gut! Once you know the drill, go and tackle the special challenges!

Play in groups

Compete in groups by entering "group tags". You can do this when you play the first time, or later in settings or on the leaderboards page. Create direct links for events with your custom tag, https://guess-the-citations.org/play?tag=grouptag26, will prefill the group tag of new players with #grouptag26.

Background

Citation counts show which papers get noticed and cited, but this is heavily shaped by field, journal name, author reputation, hype, and other forces. If you consider the content of a study, only based on title and abstract, you will notice how difficult it can be to guess the citation counts.

Some journals are known for publishing highly cited work. But if you look at the data, many publications still get relatively few citations, and only a few receive many. This results in a broad, skewed distribution with a long tail.

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To explore this, play with this interactive graph. Select a base dataset (random journals, 25 popular journals, 3 prestige journals) and then filter by journal or keywords to compare citation distributions.

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Analysis details

Publications were fetched from OpenAlex using the following three dataset filters:

Journal groupings

random journals
- any journal
- topics Genetics, Molecular Biology, Cell Biology, Biotechnology, Synthetic Biology, Systems Biology, Computational Biology
- abstract length > 50 words, to exclude editorials
- last 3 years.

25 popular journals
- journals: Nature, Nature Genetics, Nature Biotechnology, Nature Methods, Nature Cell Biology, Nature Structural & Molecular Biology, Nature Microbiology, Nature Medicine, Nature Neuroscience, Nature Immunology, Molecular Systems Biology, Nature Communications, Molecular Cell, Cell, Cell Stem Cell, Developmental Cell, Cell Systems, Cell Reports, Science, Science Advances, EMBO Journal, Genes & Development, RNA, Elife
- equal number publications from each journal
- topic Biology
- abstract length > 50 words, to exclude editorials
- last 5 years.

3 prestige journals (Cell/Nature/Science)
- journals: Cell, Nature, Science
- equal number publications from each journal
- topic Biology
- abstract length > 50 words, to exclude editorials
- last 5 years.

What you are guessing

You are guessing which paper received more citations per year.

citations per year = total citations / years since publication

This is calculated exactly based on days since publication / 365.25. Main caveat: this does not account for sub-field differences (biochemistry vs computational biology), or that older papers might have accumulated citations differently over decades.

Data Source

Publication data and citations are sourced from OpenAlex, an awesome free (with limits) and open catalog of scholarly papers, authors, and institutions. It is made by OurResearch, a nonprofit, dedicated to open science, and supported by Arcadia and Navigation Fund. Some publishers do not share abstracts openly or actively restrict their use, but this is the best openly available data source.

Inspired by

About me

As a molecular biologist, I've seen how much weight is put on journal names and their impact factors, which are a consequence of citation counts. This project is my way to learn about this topic, about gamification, and web development. Grateful to early supporters: MM, AS, IL, GC, PW, SB, MS.

Disclaimer

This game is made by one person as a hobby project to explore the limitations of citation counts. It is not affiliated with ANY organization. The data is stored, but it will never be used to train a model, it will not be sold, it will not be used to display paper "rankings".

Your support

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